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Climate Models and Killer Storms |
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Almost all evidence for man-caused global
warming originates with eight climate change models called global climate
models or GCMs. These are very sophisticated models, so sophisticated that
they have to be run on super computers. However, the modelers are not
climate scientists and have to get all their information from climate
scientists. The modelers also admit that although they use thousands of
variables in their models, those variables make up less than half of all the
variables that impact climate. Not only that, every one of these models is
based on the premise that CO2 warming must occur physically in a
certain way (see below), a way that is now proven not to be what has actually happened.
The earth did not warm in the twentieth century like these models said it
must. |
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The physics of CO2 greenhouse gas warming
are well known. Most warming will occur
in the mid troposphere at about 8 to 14 kilometers, and in the tropical
zone between about 30o north and 30o south of the
equator. Another area of warming closer to the earth's surface would occur
towards the two poles. All of the climate models have this built into their
equations. That is what the left graph clearly shows. Reality, however,
paints a completely different picture. Temperature data derived from
radiosonde balloons since the
1950s show no warming where climate models and pure physics says it should
warm. This is one of the greatest pieces of evidence that CO2 has not been
the cause of the twentieth century warming. In spite of this, man-caused
warming proponents insist that the modeled forecasts (left) and the
radiosonde reality (right) do agree with each other.
You can judge for
yourself. |
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Storms and precipitation form when
warmer, moist air collides with colder dry air. The colder air causes the
warm, moist air to rise, causing the water vapor to condense into clouds and
eventually water droplets which fall as rain or snow (if cold enough). The
greater the difference in temperature between the two air masses, the more
intense the storm. If the difference is very large, the storm will be
violent as in the case of hurricanes and tornadoes. Since the physics of
global warming demand that the mid-elevation and northern latitudes warm
faster than low elevations and latitudes, the temperature differential will
decline, and the number of violent storms should also decline. For instance,
the Little Ice Age had many more violent storms than occurred in the past
100 years. As the earth cools, we can expect more hurricanes and tornadoes
like occurred in the spring of 2008. |
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Hurricanes are violent storms that began
with the same principle as described above. Warm, moist ocean air encounters
cooler air above and begins to rise through the cooler air because it is
lighter. In this case, the temperature differential is great and the warm,
moist air rises ever faster. As the water vapor condenses, it releases heat,
which creates even a greater temperature differential. The coriolis effect
of the earth's rotation causes the rising air mass to begin to rotate. When
the internal winds become strong enough, air mass develops into a tropical
storm and then a hurricane. It all depends on a strong temperature
differential between the warm sea surface and a cold middle troposphere.
While it is true the ocean surface warms with greenhouse warming, the
mid-troposphere warms even faster, reducing the temperature gradient and the threat of a hurricane. While this
is poorly understood, the number of hurricanes declined during the period
when rapid warming was occurring during the last 30 years of the twentieth
century. Research at NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)
has shown that global warming
increases wind shear, which also decreases the number and violence of
Hurricanes. See
NOAA
wind shear animation. |
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